Port St. Lucie, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

196
FXUS62 KMLB 141748
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
148 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Summer-like sea breeze pattern, with scattered (locally
  numerous) afternoon and evening showers and lightning storms,
  will persist into next week. Main threats will be lightning
  strikes, gusty winds 40-50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall from
  slow-moving storms.

- Hot and humid conditions will lead to heat indices 100-107 and a
  Moderate to Major HeatRisk. Residents and visitors should
  remain well-hydrated and seek breaks in the shade or A/C during
  the heat of the day. For more info about HeatRisk and heat
  safety tips, visit Heat.gov.

- A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents persists at all
  central Florida Atlantic beaches. Always swim near a lifeguard
  and never enter the water alone!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Current-Tonight...Very warm and humid conditions continue with
scattered (locally numerous) afternoon and evening showers and
lightning storms. High pressure ridging remains situated south of
central FL. Light SW/W flow with winds eventually "backing"
onshore at the coast with sea breeze formation and slow inland
push. The late day/early evening sea breeze collision will occur
across the eastern peninsula with a light westerly storm steering
flow which may bring storms back to at least the Volusia/Space
coasts during the evening hours. Primary storm impacts remain
frequent lightning strikes, torrential downpours, gusty winds
40-50 mph, and small hail. Quick 2-3" (localized 4") downpours are
possible with stronger and slower-moving storms. This will produce
considerable ponding of water on roadways and other poorly drained
surfaces. Activity will gradually diminish mid-late evening with
mostly dry conditions overnight as skies slowly thin.

Afternoon highs ahead of precipitation will reach the L-M90s. Peak
heat indices 101-107F. If you will be engaged in any outdoor
activities, drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks indoors or
in the shade, and protect yourself from the sun by wearing
sunscreen and a hat. NEVER leave children or pets unattended in a
hot vehicle for any length of time! Mild and muggy conditions
continue at night with lows mostly in the M-U70s.

Mon-Sat...There remains little change to the weather pattern across
ECFL, with high pressure ridging well southward into late week.
Daily light SW/W winds transition onshore each afternoon at the
coast with sea breeze formation. Fairly deep moisture remains across
the region. Storm steering flow remains either light westerly or
light/variable at times. Late day/early evening sea breeze
collisions favor the eastern FL peninsula. SCT to locally numerous
showers/storms will develop in the afternoon, then gradually
diminish thru the evening and/or push off of the east coast.
Lightning strikes, torrential downpours with minor/nuisance
flooding, and locally gusty winds will continue to be the primary
concerns.

High temps continue in the L-M90s with overnight lows in the 70s
with conditions humid. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk will occur each
day. Peak heat indices will average between 100-107F areawide. For
more info about HeatRisk and heat safety tips, visit Heat.gov.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The surface ridge axis remains shunted across the southern FL
peninsula/FL Straits thru next week. This will promote an offshore
flow, though winds will "back" south in the afternoons and SE/ESE
along the immediate coast with sea breeze formation. Wind speeds
generally 10-15 kts, but could surge higher briefly in the
evenings offshore (15-18 kts). Seas 2-3 ft.

Of primary concern will be a persistent pattern of offshore-moving
showers and lightning storms each late afternoon/evening. Storm
threats will be frequent cloud-to-water lightning, gusty winds in
excess of 34 kts, and torrential downpours. Winds/seas locally
higher invof storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

East coast sea breeze has developed, but offshore (WSW-SW) flow
5-10 kts is slowing the inland push along the Space and Treasure
Coasts, and pinning the boundary to the coast to the north. Winds
will be shifty at KTIX-KSUA before becoming onshore (SSE-SE) 5-10
kts. ISO SHRA have developed INVOF of KVRB-KFPR, and a few SHRA
ongoing here and there across the rest of ECFL. Low confidence in
convective evolution this afternoon-evening as chaotic storm
boundaries will have a significant influence in TS development.
General trends are for TSRA/SHRA to gradually increase in
coverage, with highest coverage along the sea breeze collision
near the coastal corridor, then gradually shift offshore. Chances
at KMCO-KSFB high enough to continue TEMPOs. Have also added
TEMPOs for Treasure Coast terminals, and PROB30 for KMLB. TS
expected to dissipate after 02Z, but could linger as late as
midnight. Quiet overnight once TS dissipates or moves offshore.
Rinse repeat Monday as offshore flow favors a sea breeze collision
and high TS chances on the eastern side of the peninsula.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  92  77  92 /  60  60  30  50
MCO  76  93  76  93 /  40  40  20  50
MLB  77  93  77  93 /  60  60  40  60
VRB  75  93  75  93 /  50  60  40  60
LEE  78  91  77  92 /  20  30  10  30
SFB  77  93  77  94 /  50  50  20  50
ORL  77  92  77  93 /  40  40  20  50
FPR  75  92  74  92 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Haley